The Reality Of
Decision-Making
Decision making can be regarded
as the mental processes (cognitive process) resulting in the selection of a course
of action among several alternative scenariosa. Human performance in decision
terms has not been the subject of active research from several perspectives.
From a psychological perspective, it is necessary to examine individual
decisions in the context of a set of needs, preferences an individual has and
values they seek. From a cognitive perspective, the decision making process
must be regarded as a continuous process integrated in the interaction with the
environment. From a normative perspective, the analysis of individual decisions
is concerned with the logic of decision making and rationality and the
invariant choice it leads to.
Yet, at another level, it might be regarded as a
problem solving activity which is terminated when a satisfactory solution is
reached. Therefore, decision making is a reasoning or emotional process which
can be rational or irrational, can be based on explicit
assumptions or tacit assumptions.
One must keep in mind that most decisions are
made unconsciously. Jim Nightingale, Author of Think Smart-Act Smart,
states that "we simply decide without thinking much about the decision
process." In a controlled environment, such as a classroom, instructors
encourage students to weigh pros and cons before making a decision. However in
the real world, most of our decisions are made unconsciously in our mind
because frankly, it would take too much time to sit down and list the pros and
cons of each decision we must make on a daily basis.
Logical decision making is an important part of
all science-based professions, where specialists apply their knowledge in a given area to making
informed decisions. For example, medical decision making often involves making
a diagnosis
and selecting an appropriate treatment. Some research using naturalistic
methods shows, however, that in situations with higher time
pressure, higher stakes, or increased ambiguities, experts use intuitive
decision making rather than structured approaches, following a recognition
primed decision approach to fit a set of indicators into the
expert's experience and immediately arrive at a satisfactory course of action
without weighing alternatives. Recent robust decision efforts have formally
integrated uncertainty into
the decision making process. However, Decision Analysis, recognized and included
uncertainties with a structured and rationally justifiable method of decision
making since its conception in 1964.
A major part of decision making involves the
analysis of a finite set of alternatives described in terms of some evaluative
criteria. These criteria may be benefit or cost in nature. Then the problem
might be to rank these alternatives in terms of how attractive they are to the
decision maker(s) when all the criteria are considered simultaneously. Another
goal might be to just find the best alternative or to determine the relative
total priority of each alternative (for instance, if alternatives represent
projects competing for funds) when all the criteria are considered
simultaneously. Solving such problems is the focus of multi-criteria
decision analysis (MCDA) also known as multi-criteria
decision making (MCDM). This area of decision making, although it is
very old and has attracted the interest of many researchers and practitioners,
is still highly debated as there are many MCDA / MCDM methods which may yield
very different results when they are applied on exactly the same data.[3] This leads to the formulation of
a decision making
paradox.
Problem Analysis vs Decision Making
It is important to differentiate between problem analysis and decision making. The concepts are completely
separate from one another. Problem analysis must be done first, then the
information gathered in that process may be used towards decision making.
Problem Analysis
- Analyze performance, what should the results be against what they actually are
- Problems are merely deviations from performance standards
- Problem must be precisely identified and described
- Problems are caused by some change from a distinctive feature
- Something can always be used to distinguish between what has and hasn't been effected by a cause
- Causes to problems can be deducted from relevant changes found in analyzing the problem
- Most likely cause to a problem is the one that exactly explains all the facts
Decision Making
- Objectives must first be established
- Objectives must be classified and placed in order of importance
- Alternative actions must be developed
- The alternative must be evaluated against all the objectives
- The alternative that is able to achieve all the objectives is the tentative decision
- The tentative decision is evaluated for more possible consequences
- The decisive actions are taken, and additional actions are taken to prevent any adverse consequences from becoming problems and starting both systems (problem analysis and decision making) all over again
- There are steps that are generally followed that result in a decision model that can be used to determine an optimal production plan.
- In a situation featuring conflict, role-playing is helpful for predicting decisions to be made by involved parties.
Decision Planning
Making a decision without planning is fairly common, but
does not often end well. Planning allows for decisions to be made comfortably
and in a smart way. Planning makes decision making a lot more simpler than it
is. Decision will get four benefits out of planning: 1. Planning give chance to
the establishment of independent goals. It is a conscious and directed series
of choices. 2. Planning provides a standard of measurement. It is a measurement
of whether you are going towards or further away from your goal. 3. Planning
converts values to action. You think twice about the plan and decide what will
help advance your plan best. 4. Planning allows to limited resources to be
committed in an orderly way. Always govern the use of what is limited to you
(e.g. money, time, etc..)
Conclusion : in
our decision-making should not take hasty decisions because the decisions and
it can ngengakibatkan pro contract and every decision we take we must bear
responsibility for
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar